[Update] Coupang (CPNG)
Two weeks ago I wrote about the Coupang data breach and why I was buying into the selloff.
The headlines out of Korea keep getting weirder, and I’ve found myself running through the same scenarios over and over. Business suspension. Forced breakup. Eleven government agencies on a task force. Parliamentary hearings where executives are being told to leave the country.
So I wanted to just sit down and map out what could actually happen here. Not because I have some special insight, but because the reporting has been all over the place and I think some clarity is useful, if only for my own sanity.
Funny enough, right as I’m finishing this post, the WSJ dropped an article claiming the Trump administration is warning South Korea against targeting U.S. tech firms with “discriminatory” probes, with Coupang named specifically. JD Vance reportedly raised it directly with Korea’s Prime Minister.
I talk about the geopolitical angle below, but this makes it a lot more explicit. Washington is clearly paying a lot of attention…
But back to the scenarios. From what I can gather, there are four potential outcomes:
Full business suspension. The nuclear option. The FTC chairman has said publicly it’s legally feasible under Korea’s E-Commerce Act. Coupang stops operating entirely. Deliveries halt. Eats stops. Play goes dark.
Partial or phased suspension. A Democratic Party lawmaker recently floated this as “fully possible.” Suspend specific segments rather than the whole company — maybe Eats gets shut down for a period while core e-commerce keeps running.
Forced unbundling. This predates the breach. The FTC was already investigating whether bundling Eats and Play into WOW membership constitutes unfair cross-selling. Google Korea just unbundled YouTube Music to avoid similar sanctions. Some expect Coupang to follow.
Heavy fines and corrective orders. The most common outcome for Korean platform investigations. Coupang has already paid 162.8 billion won (roughly $114 million) in FTC fines over the past three years.