I figured I’d try doing a short week-ahead post where I go through the main earnings and events coming up, a few levels I’m watching, and how I’m thinking about the market going into it.
I might make these a regular thing, or at least put one out for the busier weeks like this one. If you find it useful and would like to see more, let me know in the comments or subscriber chat. Happy to keep doing them if there’s interest.
And this is a pretty good week to start. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are all reporting, and after the recent selling, I think a lot of people are looking at this as a test of whether the AI trade still has some life in it.
We’ve got the Fed too, although with rates widely expected to stay unchanged for now, I think the hyperscalers are probably going to be the bigger story.
The calendar
With Monday in the books, here’s what’s still ahead. All times Eastern.
Tuesday, Oct. 27: Coca-Cola, PayPal and UPS before the open; Visa and Seagate after the close. Durable goods at 8:30 a.m., then consumer confidence and new home sales at 10 a.m.
Wednesday, Oct. 28: The Fed decision at 2 p.m., followed by the press conference at 2:30 p.m. Microsoft, Alphabet, ServiceNow and KLA report after the close.
Thursday, Oct. 29: Q3 GDP, September PCE inflation and jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. Caterpillar, Eli Lilly and Mastercard report before the open; Amazon, Intel and Starbucks after the close.
Friday, Oct. 30: Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m. AbbVie, Chevron and ExxonMobil report before the open.
A few levels
QQQ closed Monday at $712.20 up 1.09%, while SPY finished at $765.28, up 0.70%. These are rough areas I’m watching based on recent trading.
QQQ: Monday’s bounce brought it back into $710–715. I’m watching whether it can hold around $709–710 on a pullback and clear $715–716. Above that, $720–723 and $725–728 are the next areas. $700–702 remains the bigger support zone if this rebound falls apart.
SPY: It’s back inside $764–768. I’d like it to hold roughly $763–764 on a pullback and get through $768, with $773–774 above that. $758–760 is still the bigger downside area.
I’d want to see those upside areas hold after being reclaimed. Another quick pop that gets sold would leave me less convinced.
What I’m thinking
Monday was a decent start, and I’m still leaning toward more of a relief bounce, especially in QQQ.
The market already seems pretty comfortable with the Fed leaving rates unchanged this week. Unless we get a surprise hike or a much more hawkish message than expected, I think most of the attention is going to fall on guidance and capex from the hyperscalers.
I expect the actual big tech earnings numbers to be good, and I think that’s broadly the expectation already. For me, the bigger question is what Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon say about demand going forward, how much they’re planning to spend, and what that means for margins and cash flow. A good quarter probably won’t get us very far if the outlook disappoints.
And yes, on weeks like this I do like to fuel my degeneracy with a few lottos when it makes sense. After today’s move, I’d like to get a pullback tomorrow. If we get one and I like how it’s trading, I’d probably take a very small position in weekly QQQ calls.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
The focus on what Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon say about capex and demand guidance, rather than the headline earnings numbers, seems like the right lens this week. The QQQ $715-716 reclaim you flagged is a clear level to watch after Monday's bounce.