Portoflio Update
YTD: +95%
Alibaba reported earnings this week, and I won’t rehash the full details here since I just published a dedicated breakdown.
The short version: Cloud is finally accelerating again (+26% YoY), quick commerce is scaling faster than anyone expected (300M MAUs in just a few months), and core commerce remains steady.
Free cash flow and earnings took a hit from the heavy investment, but overall, it was exactly the kind of quarter I expected…
“I think the upcoming China earnings season (especially Alibaba) will be strong. The key segment to watch is Cloud. I’m looking for 20%+ growth this quarter, with that growth continuing to accelerate as AI demand ramps. EPS might come in a little light because of heavy cloud/AI investment and the ongoing instant delivery price war, but those are exactly the kinds of investments that strengthen Alibaba’s position long term.” — Portfolio Update (August 9th)
Zooming out, though, the bigger story is still China.
Despite the rally we’ve seen this summer, valuations remain at the bottom of their historical ranges. MSCI China still trades at a discount to almost every major global market, while the S&P sits priced for perfection.