[New Position] Ferrari (RACE)

A Different Kind of “Automaker”

I’ve started a small position in Ferrari.

This isn’t a trade. It’s the beginning of a position I’d like to build if we keep seeing weakness. The stock is in the middle of its largest drawdown in years, and while Ferrari has always deserved a premium multiple, that premium is finally starting to compress into something I can live with.

Ferrari has never been cheap. And for good reason. It’s one of the cleanest luxury franchises on earth, with margins and returns that make most automakers look like shit, pardon my French.

So what changed? At its October 2025 Capital Markets Day, management reset expectations:

“In ‘22, we told you, by 2030, we expect 20% of our offer to be ICE, 40% hybrid, 40% electric. Well, it’s today, October ‘25, where we say that the 3 numbers changed. The 20% ICE became 40%. That’s what we see for 2030. And the 40% of electric becomes 20%.”

The market didn’t like it. A toned-down EV target and a cautious 5% long-term revenue CAGR were enough to trigger Ferrari’s worst single-day drop since 2015. Investors wanted a growth story; Ferrari gave them a discipline story. Ironically, that’s what I like about it.