I Bought the Panic (Again)
The worst day since April was just another buying opportunity.
Trump woke up and did what he does best: fire off threats, move markets, and call it strategy.
“…I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so… One of the Policies that we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America. There are many other countermeasures that are, likewise, under serious consideration. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” — TACO
The whole thing hit like a grenade. Everything sold off—hard. It turned into the worst single day for the U.S. market since April 10th.
But the setup for this kind of selloff was almost too perfect. Valuations were sitting near 25-year highs, sentiment was stretched, and the market had been coasting on weeks of euphoria. Everyone was positioned long, chasing new highs, and waiting for a reason to take profits. Trump just gave them one. A frothy market met a loud headline and the result was a fast, emotional reset.
And that’s all it is: a reset, not a regime change.
This isn’t a grand shift in policy. It’s negotiation in public. Beijing tightens rare-earth exports and asks for maximum concessions. Trump swings back with tariff talk. Both sides are flexing before they sit down. Markets tend to confuse theater with substance.
We’ve also seen this exact act before. In April, the rhetoric got hot, markets cracked, and the tone changed the minute the damage started to show up in polls and headlines. Trump can talk tough, but his tolerance for market pain is short. It never lasts. He shoots first, thinks later, then calls it a win after someone cleans up the message.
Will Scott Bessent pop up to calm nerves? Maybe. He’s become the level-headed market whisperer in this orbit. I’m not betting the farm on it, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see “clarifications” over the weekend. Wouldn’t be surprised to see more noise either. That’s how this game works—push, pull, then back to a framework.
And sure enough, as I was finishing this post, Trump dropped another Truth Social statement threatening 100% tariffs and new export controls starting November 1st. Classic escalation move.
It’s loud, dramatic, and designed to look decisive, but it doesn’t change the core dynamic. It’s still leverage, not policy. He’s trying to force Beijing back to the table on his terms. I still think that ends the same way it always does: the market panics, the noise peaks, and within a week or two someone “clarifies” and the path to a deal reappears.
My view hasn’t changed: we eventually get a Trump–Xi meeting. Either a deal gets done by year end, or we get another “90-day extension” when the current one expires in November. They didn’t carry negotiations this far to blow them up weeks before a set meeting.