10 Stocks I’m Watching in 2026

As we head into the new year, I wanted to put together a list of names I think are worth watching.

This list is shaped by a specific view on where we are in the cycle.

US markets have had three straight years of incredible returns, driven largely by the AI trade. If you’ve been along for the ride, congrats. It’s been nothing short of remarkable.

But valuations have become stretched. The S&P trades around ~23x forward earnings. The Nasdaq is pushing ~27x. And those are forward multiples, meaning they already bake in pretty optimistic earnings growth.

If that “E” gets revised down even a little, these prices start to look silly.

Koyfin is the tool I use every day to compare financials, track valuation work, and pull most of the charts you see in this post. Coughlin Capital has a partnership with Koyfin, so readers get 20% OFF any plan using this link.

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Meanwhile, emerging markets are trading around ~14x earnings. The valuation gap between the US and the rest of the world is as wide as it’s been in years.

I’m also expecting a weaker dollar. The DXY dropped about 9% in 2025, its worst year since 2017, and we saw the exact same playbook during Trump’s first term when the dollar weakened pretty much the whole time he was in office. I think the case for continued weakness is even stronger now. Trust in the US is slowly eroding and the dominance we’ve taken for granted for decades is starting to slip. I don’t see that reversing anytime soon, and a weaker dollar is a big tailwind for EM.

So yeah, this list is heavy on EM and China, and light on US names.

I know that makes some people uncomfortable. But that’s where I see value right now. I’d rather own good businesses at reasonable prices than pay up for US names trading at nosebleed multiples with less growth potential.

A few things before we get into it. These aren’t formal recommendations. They’re names on my radar where the setup looks interesting and the risk/reward seems attractive for the year ahead. Some I already own. Some I’m still working through.

Position sizing and timing are your problem, not mine.

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1.) FOUR (Shift4 Payments)

Regular readers know this one well. Shift4 is my largest position, and I’ve written about it extensively.

[Update] Shift4 (FOUR)

They’re a leading payments processor focused on hospitality, restaurants, stadiums, hotels, and other high-volume venues.

The business has compounded at 25%+ for years while expanding internationally. The Global Blue acquisition, which closed in late 2024, gives them a real footprint in Europe and positions them as a player in tax-free shopping and cross-border payments.

The stock got crushed in late 2025 along with other payment and fintech names, and it suffered from a lot of tax loss harvesting into year end. I think the selling is overdone.

At current prices, you’re paying around ~7x LTM EBITDA and ~5.5x 2027 FCF for a business still growing 20% organically.

The valuation makes no sense to me. Management seems to agree. They just authorized a $1 billion buyback, which at this market cap is meaningful.

I’ve been adding on weakness. If it stays in this range or dips further, I’ll likely add more.

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2.) BABA (Alibaba)

Alibaba, ever heard of it?

This is another name I own and also have written about a lot, most recently the deep dive on Alibaba Cloud.

Alibaba Cloud: What’s It Actually Worth?

The short version: you’re getting the dominant e-commerce platform in China, the leading cloud provider growing 34% with AI-related revenue now over 20% of external cloud sales, a logistics network through Cainiao, a payments platform through Ant, and international e-commerce operations.

All for around ~13x NTM EBITDA.

The company has also retired roughly ~15% of shares outstanding since they started buying back stock in earnest. Capital allocation has genuinely changed.

Geopolitics isn’t going away. China’s economy has challenges. But at current valuations, you’re being paid to take those risks.

More broadly, I think China equities will be meaningfully higher by the end of the year and significantly higher by the end of Trump’s term. The pessimism is overdone, valuations are cheap, and the policy environment is shifting.

BABA is my largest China position and the cleanest way to play that thesis.